Critical Political Analysis on RPF rule - if not monitored, RPF rule might push again Rwanda towards violence.

Majority rule and minority rights

  To better understand majority rule and minority rights we need to observe the definitions of each. First, majority rule is the concept that policies will be determined by what the majority of the people decides. While this majority of the people decide for everyone ( including minorities) there have been laws set forth in the Constitution that protect the basic rights of minorities regardless of race, gender, religious affiliation or sexual preference. Secondly, minority rights are the basic rights attributed to certain minority groups to ensure that they attain equality and have a voice in political decisions even when the majority wins over them. These two are related to each other in that the framers designed the government to restrict or impede the majority from hindering or taking away the rights of the minority.

The role of threat and fear leads President Kagame and RPF to more bloodshed, repressions and police state strengthening.

It is easy to look at Rwanda today and forget the enormous challenges, which consist in Justice of all Rwandans without discrimination, RPF accountability in the 1994 mass murder and the strengthening of Rwandan democratic institutions. Yet there is some uncertainty over whether sincere inter-ethnic healing and reconciliation are in fact emerging, there is no middle ground for having a stable state. Critics actually describe Rwanda as a society, in which there is non-violent co-existence based on necessity rather than genuine peace and unity between Hutu and Tutsi.

The remarkable character of the strategy becomes apparent when one remembers that the paradigm usually favoured by international mediators following conflict is to explicitly balance the interests of ethnic or sectarian groups in the constitutional re-design of the nation. What happened in Rwanda

The economic progress should underpin the rule of law

The purpose of the prohibition, it states, is „…to remove ethnic labelling as the basis for discrimination, denial of service and policy-making...‟ and „…to calm down ethnic passion and to silence ethnic identification and promote a narrative of national identity in order to nurture an environment for inter-communal peace and dialogue…‟

The ability of the regime to control its population

Rwanda comprises only two numerically important ethnic groups and one group, the Hutu majority, is overwhelmingly larger than the other, the Tutsi minority. This minority is concerned for its renewed persecution if a Hutu-majority government were to be democratically empowered.

Internal order is assured in part because the Rwandan state has an effective intelligence service, police force, and military capable of controlling the population and securing the small territory it inhabits.

The implication being that in the absence of this external constraint, grievances - ethnic, regional, or otherwise - may rise to the surface.

From autocracy to democracy in the police state of Rwanda

Does the Rwandan government have legitimate concerns regarding the possible consequences of political liberalization and the protection of the country’s Tutsi minority is rightfully high among these concerns? The answer is No. A

Advocates of greater political freedom and human rights norms - whose energies are often focused on the concerns of politically-weaker government opponents - should not underestimate the risk posed by potentially divisive individuals within Rwandan society.
It is a risk heightened by Rwanda’s highly unusual ethnic demography, one which distinguishes it from most other sub-Saharan states: Rwanda comprises only two numerically important ethnic groups and one group, the Hutu majority, is overwhelmingly larger than the other, the Tutsi minority. This minority is concerned for its renewed persecution if a Hutu-majority government were to be democratically empowered.
Accumulation of the pressure cooker:  Vision 2020, RPF government strategy is built upon the sand of lies.

Mindful of these concerns, the Rwandan government is sensitive to criticism that it wrongly equates the existential survival of the Tutsi minority with the political survival of the regime and its ruling elite.

While political liberalization then may seem perilous to the regime, in the longer-term the alternative may not be better. In the absence of a change in political culture, continued political exclusion may force the steam of ethnic or indeed other „grievances‟ to simply continue to accumulate inside the pressure cooker. This has a dangerous self-reinforcing logic: the government will feel compelled to exert even more control to counter even more pressure.

Post-conflict stability with economic growth, strong leadership without strong institutions

In sum, post-conflict stability premised on economic growth and strong leadership - but without political liberalization in the longer term - may have a finite duration and a possibly dramatic ending.

In the absence of a re-opening of political space, Rwanda faces several possibilities for regime change. The most likely of these today is the risk of a coup from within the ruling party itself.

The optimal strategy for a peaceful transition of power then would be a gradual increase in political space so that Rwanda's formal state institutions and civil and political society are able to emerge as mature and independent counterweights to the ruling party.

The repeat of same or previous errors with the with the exclusion of Hutu majority

It accentuated differences between the Hutu majority and Tutsi minority, reinforcing a sense of racial superiority in the latter and privileging this group with positions of authority and power.

Exception that might speed up the regime change : Hutu and Tutsi opponents united against the autocratic regime.

The press, civil society and opposition parties are deprived of freedom to operate freely. President Kagame and the RPF ruling party that he leads depend on repression to stay in power.‟ These four individuals had held high-level positions in the government: Dr. Théogène Rudasingwa, former Chief of Staff to President Kagame, former Secretary-General of the RPF, and former Ambassador to the United States; Gerald Gahima, former Prosecutor-General and Vice-President of the Supreme Court; Colonel Patrick Karegeya, former head of Rwanda‟s intelligence service; and Lieutenant-General Kayumba Nyamwasa, former Chief of Staff of the Rwandan army and former Ambassador to India.

The direct causes of the regime change: (i) democratization; (ii) the civil war; and (iii) assassination of the Head of State and (IV) the planed power vacuum which Tutsi extremists and RPF exploited to capture the state.

The rise of ethnic inequality, income inequality, humiliation, and social exclusion will undoubtedly lead to the inevitable conflict.

Democratization represented an internal political threat to the ruling elite, and an opportunity for Rwanda’s newly-legitimized political counter-elite to participate in politics. Neo-Malthusian theories underrate the situation in Rwanda focusing on demographic pressure without increasing the population revenues.

On the other hand, primary education careless, educational inequality between Hutu and Tutsis and peasantry are suffering from the chauvinistic RPF regime. Data on jobs is generally poor in Rwanda due to the obvious radicalizing policy of exclusion of the Hutu. Having said this, spatial inequality between town and country is unlikely to place the direct stress on a country that would push it towards ethnic violence: the Tutsi minority living in the town and the Hutu majority living the poor countryside with extreme poverty.

Increasing of anger related to ethnic discrimination and ethnic inequality

In Rwanda the government has outlawed ethnic identification making it difficult to know or even to discuss openly whether Tutsi have been favored over Hutu in the allocation of public sector and para-statal and even private jobs, or in educational places and overseas scholarships.

The over-representation of Tutsi in government jobs and educational placements remains a fact in Rwanda, and persists to a great significant extent that causes protests inside Rwanda.  The inability today to even discuss ethnic distribution does nothing to rebut continuing popular perceptions of ethnic discrimination and ethnic inequality.

Remarkable economic growth due to the illegal exploitation of the DRC mineral resources

Rwanda’s economic progress since the genocide is remarkable, and due in large part to the illegal exploitation of the DRC mineral resources, and the position of strength the RPF that holds vis-à-vis Rwandan society and vis-à-vis its political opponents.

In 2001, a UN investigation into the illegal exploitation of natural resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) published a report suggesting links between members of the Rwandan military and civilian regime and private entities involved in the export of cassiterite, coltan, gold, and diamonds among other minerals from the DRC.

The distribution of resources between ethnic groups remains a constant source of grievance by the majority Hutu. As mentioned earlier, the exclusion of allegations of war crimes committed by the RPF against the Hutu population from Rwanda’s transitional justice process, gacaca courts, and the brainwashing Ingando publically to promote inter-ethnic reconciliation and national unity within Rwanda plus Umushyikirano, Rwanda‟s annual National Dialogue, like ingando remains the longstanding grievance of the Hutu community.

Lack of rule-based governance

The RPF refuses to adhere to democratic values because of next points: (i) competitive, multi-party politics leads to ethnic polarization; and (ii) democratic elections, given Rwanda’s unusual bi-ethnic demography (85% Hutu, 14% Tutsi and 1% Twa, carry the risk of empowering a Hutu majority government and thus exposing its Tutsi to renewed persecution.

However, it is the independence rather than the effectiveness of Rwanda’s institutions which is cause for concern. The government has drawn on its laws proscribing „genocide ideology‟ and „sectarianism‟ in its management of political and civil society, and it is very sensitive to allegations that it is misusing these powers for personal, party, or ethnic advantage. Widows and orphans belonging to the Hutu ethnic Group are discriminated from all government social-economic programs.

The conclusion is that peace is most likely to endure if and only if Rwanda’s political space is opened up to allow

(i)                 Rwanda‟s formal state institutions to establish greater autonomy from the current RPF regime and

(ii)               Rwandan political and civil society – its political opposition and media in particular – to evolve as mature and independent counterweights to the ruling party.

It is in the regime’s long-term strategic self-interest to encourage such a change in political culture and increase its legitimacy in order to discourage attempts to b ring about regime change.

The Evidence

African SurViVors International (ASI) is an international nonpartisan charity organization devoted to defending human rights. It’s an organization working to promote democracy and national reconciliation, inside countries of the African Great lakes Region.

ASI centers its work on the twin concepts of freedom of self-determination and freedom from tyranny. These ideals include the belief that all human beings have the rights to speak freely, to associate with those of like mind, and to leave and enter their countries. Individuals in a free society must be accorded equal treatment and due process under law, and must have the opportunity to participate in the governments of their countries;

ASI’s ideals likewise find expression in the conviction that all human beings have the right to be free from arbitrary detainment or exile and from interference and coercion in matters of conscience. ASI does not support nor condone violence. 

The Truth can be buried and stomped into the ground where none can see, yet eventually it will, like a seed, break through the surface once again far more potent than ever, and Nothing can stop it. Truth can be suppressed for a "time", yet It cannot be destroyed. ==> Wolverine