My Predictions of what is likely to happen in Rwanda’s politics

"In a dictatorship, one individual has managed to accumulate power and authority to the extent that he or she is the voice and will of the government and, therefore, the people. Dictators are sometimes called totalitarians because all political life is centered on a single individual. The totality of everything the government does revolves around the dictator.

A dictator’s source of power is almost always fear, usually engendered by a loyal paramilitary force that keeps political opponents and uprisings in check. All government officials serve at the will of the dictator. If there is a hint of disloyalty, these people are routinely removed from their positions and, in many instances, executed. Totalitarian economies are almost uniformly command and control economies. Some free market activities exist, but nothing is free from the grasp of the dictator. The structures and functions of government can be altered in any way the dictator pleases. The only redeeming aspect of a totalitarian regime is that it might be slightly better than outright anarchy".

My Predictions of what is likely to happen in Rwanda’s politics

by Jean Paul Ndindamahina, 27 May 2015

Kigali Rwanda - It can be very difficult to imagine what would happen when a leader who is like the glue that sticks people and institutions together departs from power or remain on power illegally. The president of Rwanda, alike Rwanda’s former leader Habyarimana, is considered to be capable and a warrior. He is feared by his people and whatever he orders; it is quickly done without questioning. As a former guerrilla commander; He is a man with authority indeed. He does not repeat himself, he is a result oriented president and his passion is to see things being done the way he would like it. For some Rwandans, he is hush and a man with absolute authority and for other Rwandans he is just a warrior, a president who fought wars and liberates the country and revenge for his people and to later to become a man who he is today and a man who holds a key of peace in his hands.

There are a number of Rwandans who fear what tomorrow will bring for Rwanda and many of these Rwandans feel too much will occur if president departs from political office. As ideology goes some Rwandans try to think positive (naïve) hence their campaign for him to keep being the glue that holds them together and others like me, feel that time has come for Rwanda to start building strong institutions are not build on individualism ideology but on sense of nationhood and pride but under one party system, the constitution is going to be amended to allow one man to contest for a third time and keep playing the role to stick people and institutions together and most importantly Rwanda’s current political coalition.

The following are likelihood if the plan to change and amend the constitution goes ahead.

1.Parliamentarian game

This game has already started. Using the ministry of local government, vulnerable Rwanda citizens are contacted and are forced to sign their petitions to demand Kagame’s third term in office. These petitions are then bundled together and brought back to the parliament building and public ceremony is held as a propaganda to show the entire world that in fact, the people of Rwanda want president Kagame to keep his office for a third term.

There is a hint that the parliament is going to look at those petition from people who want Kagame to stay and those who don’t want third term( Only one man Frank, managed to reach parliament building with his against petition but there was no ceremony ) in June 2015 and the likelihood is that the parliament may not decide in June, it may choose to keep stocking their forged people’s petition for a third term until the same people are manipulated to occupy Rwandan streets demanding Kagame’s third term. Forcing people to go into street and demand Kagame’s leadership, is going to be a game that takes off any shame in the face of those who will make decision to change the constitution in its article 101 that currently allows two presidential term limits.

The reason number one that make most Rwandans feel Rwanda is not their home under a certain leadership like RPF led government is that the parliament does not take charge of Rwanda, it is full of individuals who are salary driven and being nominated by their political party and not directly voted by the people, it is impossible that Rwanda’s members of parliament would create a country that any Rwanda can call his or her home hence these so called member of parliament , don’t consider it to be a shame and a betrayal to a country when trying to manipulate the country and her people because they were given a ticket to a parliamentary seat ; not by the people and country but by the president himself who nominates them under their political party.

2.The political game from Political parties in coalition with RPF

We all know that the only political party that exists in Rwanda is green party and we already know that the president of green party Frank Habineza has refused to support the third term in office for the President. Most political parties in coalition fear that if Paul Kagame is to step down as the constitution states in its article 101; then it is without a doubt that the current existence of political coalition will cease to exists and those so called political opposition leaders don’t imagine to operate under a such extreme political environment hence they would support one man who is considered to be the glue that holds them together to keep his office.

Some members in these political oppositions in coalition with RPF may not agree to idea and these political parties would ensure that those who are on their head are President Kagame’s married wives who would convince and if not consent their political members to agree to a third term for president Kagame and we have already started seeing some Rwanda’s opposition parties reshuffling their leadership with PSD the second Rwanda’s largest party removing Dr Ntawukuriryayo as a leader of that party replacing him with DR Biruta, a long term best friend of President Kagame. This reshuffle in opposition parties who are in coalition with RPF ensures silence should the Rwandan constitution to lift presidential terms in office is changed.

3.President Kagame’s own game

President Kagame is the best when it comes to his own political game. He is a man who is capable to hide himself behind humbleness but definitely, he is a man who knows what he wants and who can take advantages if necessary. His recent conference with journalist, he was asked of what he thinks about the ongoing campaign for him to stay in office and he explained two thoughts of school and he said he was with those who say, he should respect the constitution and later, he said he was open for a third term!

So the game is even the constitution is changed to allow him to run for a third term, President Kagame is likely to refuse to straight away go and say , I am now running for a third term in office in fear of causing chaos and international outrage but instead, he will let another person context for a president. Whoever will contest for a president other than President Kagame is likely to fail, 2, 3 or 4 years later; president Kagame would resume his office as usual because legally, he would not be barred from being a president an after he becomes once again the president, he would be for life.

As conclusion, I urge all Rwandan leaders to show due respect to our constitution and respect the right of every Rwandans to follow a political party of their choices. All members of parliament to be directly voted by the people not their political parties. Allow all political changes to take place because the mistake would be to prevent an unavoidable change from taking place.

The Truth can be buried and stomped into the ground where none can see, yet eventually it will, like a seed, break through the surface once again far more potent than ever, and Nothing can stop it. Truth can be suppressed for a "time", yet It cannot be destroyed. ==> Wolverine