[Since 1994, the world witnesses the horrifying Tutsi minority (14%) ethnic domination, the Tutsi minority ethnic rule with an iron hand, tyranny and corruption in Rwanda. The current government has been characterized by the total impunity of RPF criminals, the Tutsi economic monopoly, the Tutsi militaristic domination, and the brutal suppression of the rights of the majority of the Rwandan people (85% are Hutus)and mass arrests of Hutus by the RPF criminal organization =>AS International]
Kagame’s headache: To bow out or to hang on?
Wrong !
Naturally, the second subject set the conference — and, by extension, the country — afire, sending rivulets of excitement, anticipation and even confusion throughout the ‘land of a thousand hills’.
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| RTBF - Manifestation et sit-in devant l'ambassade de Belgique à Bujumbura. - © Tous droits réservés |
“I have been asked by many people, especially journalists, whether I will respect the term limits on the presidency,” Kagame began his speech on the issue, “but regardless of the answer I give, the question keeps coming back. Now even citizens are asking me the same question: Will I retire in 2017? Many of those asking this question are worried about the future of the country; whether, when I leave, there will be continuity and stability, especially given the increasing pressures on the country.”
Kagame went ahead to display letters from ‘ordinary Rwandans’ beseeching him to stay on, with many expressing fears that, should he leave, the gains of his presidency could soon be swept away by ineptitude and political indiscipline.
Those remarks, and the letters in Kagame’s hands, brought to national attention a trend that has troubled the presidency and its opposition over the past few months.
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| Rwandan President Paul Kagame attends a summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on February 24, 2013. Photo/AFP AFP |
In the private missives, as well as in public functions, people say that, given the unique circumstances of Rwanda and recent pressures on its government to toe a certain line, they are worried that when Kagame leaves, many things could go wrong, and especially so if he leaves quickly and haphazardly.
“Irrespective of me saying; ‘Yes, I will go’, people keep saying they are not sure this is possible,” he said. “I don’t want this uncertainty to continue. Come 2017, we are going to have change. But there needs to be continuity and stability. Therefore the challenge is how to organise this change while at the same time ensuring continuity of what we have achieved and also retaining the stability of the country.”
To get the back story of Rwanda’s seeming aversion to a post-Kagame government, we talked to those in his administration and those outside it, to his loyalists and his biggest critics, to the man in high office and the woman in the streets. The results, needless to say, were baffling.
Except for a small fringe in Kigali, the vast majority of ordinary Rwandans want the Constitution amended to remove term limits so that Kagame can run again.
Mastering
the Bluff
"Kagame’s system of bluffing is to
slow-play and let his prey do the betting and find him. Hey believes that the
way to trap Rwandans is to lure him by feigning weakness and then surprising his
opponents. While slow-playing is a choice that most stupid dictators will use
at times, it’s a way of life for this sneaky bluffer".
“People say that I should stay because there is no one to replace me,” he said. “But if in all these years I have been unable to mentor a successor or successors, that should be the reason I should not continue as president. It means that I have not created capacity for a post-me Rwanda. I see this as a personal failure.”
Kagame said that given the country’s history, context and current threats, citizens are genuinely feeling insecure and need stability above everything else.
The fears expressed by ordinary people and other high officials in government and the opposition should not be rubbished as baseless, Kagame said, but should be used to put in place measures to address them.
He also challenged RPF leaders to address the issue of limited citizen confidence in the party compared to the one they show in the president.
Yet those calling on Kagame to stay beyond 2017, however justified their fears may be, are falling into the trap the president’s critics are praying for.
For those who hate Kagame, removing term limits will be the best opportunity to argue that he is an ordinary African despot seeking to cling to power at all costs.
In the cacophony of accusations and criticisms that will result from such a move, any reasons for the amendment will not be heard.
No person is acutely aware of this than Kagame himself, and it seems many of his critics who pray he stays beyond 2017 so that they can attack him underestimate his strength of character.
“Like most have suggested,” Kagame said, “you wish or expect me to stay beyond 2017. However, at a personal level, I need you to consider two things: How do I stay? What you are asking me to do can lead me to stay as president, but at the cost of destroying the political capital I have accumulated over the years… a political capital that is based on the fact that I am a person of my word. Second, if I stay, I will have behaved in a manner that most people have come to expect of leaders in Africa.”
Many people in Africa and elsewhere in the world see amendments to constitutions to remove term limits on the presidency as manipulations by incumbents to stay in power out of personal ambition rather than public service.
The Rwandan president, his closest advisors say, is acutely aware that, if ever the Constitution were amended to remove term limits, he would be compared to the most venal of former African despots like Mobutu Sese Seko of the former Zaire, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Paul Biya of Cameroun, and Nansigbe Eyadema of Togo, among others. But Kagame does not want such comparisons to taint his brand.
“I do not want to destroy the political capital that I have carefully built over the years,” he said, adding that he understood the fear, both in the RPF and other political parties, that should he leave, there could be “a breakdown of order as happened in Mali recently”.
Kagame talked about a 2003 conversation he had had with Alpha Konari, the former president of Mali, about how he had left power.
Konari did not seem to notice that, while he had met the standard of a peaceful transfer of power from one leader to another, he had not accomplished the other component of such a successful transition; leaving behind strong institutions and mechanisms for continuity and stability.
As a consequence, Mali has now failed as a state and recently needed the intervention of troops from its former colonial master to save — not just its democracy — but the state itself from collapse.
“I would not want to be a party to such carelessness of leaving the country without having taken adequate measures to ensure continuity and stability,” Kagame promised. “That would be a betrayal of my beliefs and of the country. I would not be party to carelessness where I leave the presidency without a proper succession process. So I have a responsibility to work with all Rwandans to put in place a formula that will allow me to leave the presidency while ensuring that there is continuity and stability.”
Many Rwandan leaders and citizens in both RPF and the opposition believe that if Kagame has to leave the presidency as he seems bent on doing in 2017, adequate measures should be put in place to retain for him an important role in a post-him Rwanda.
The challenge facing the leaders of RPF is which course to take. One example is Russia’s Vladmir Putin, who respected term limits and withdrew from the presidency to become Prime Minister and later returned to the presidency.
The second is Nelson Mandela, who left the presidency and the party and did not seek to play any important leadership role.
The third example is Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere, who retired from the presidency but for the next 10 years remained chairman of the ruling party and therefore in a position to play a vital role in national politics.
Those close to him say Kagame is an admirer of Nyerere and Mandela, but prefers the former over the latter.
Therefore, he is most inclined to accept a hybrid of both nations’ experiences, picking the good in both. To this end, the Putin option is out of question. That leaves the South African and Tanzanian experience.
Many key players inside RPF are suggesting that if the Constitution is to be amended, it should be to ensure that, rather than have the election of a president directly, Rwanda adopts the party system, like South Africa, where the party with the largest number of votes after an election selects the president.
“The South African model can be joined to the Tanzanian experience, whereby President Kagame can remain chairman of RPF,” a leading RPF cadre who did not want to be named said. “If it is the party that elects the president, we are sure RPF will win in 2017 and elect a president. If Kagame is our chairman, he can exercise influence through the party. The president, having been elected by the party instead of directly by citizens, will be more inclined to listen to the party.”
Another leading RPF insider was more blunt: “The experience we had with (former president Pastuer) Bizimungu shows that the party should have powers to recall a president like the ANC has in South Africa.
Did you see what happened to (Thabo) Mbeki when the party felt he was not doing the right thing?
We in RPF want the same rules where we can recall a president. This is to avoid a situation where we front a candidate who turns out to act different from what the party wants. We would be in grave danger if we have to wait for seven years to correct the problem.”
The view that the Constitution should be amended to resemble the South African model has widespread support not only inside RPF, but also in the opposition. Yet Kagame did not promote this idea at the conference.
Instead, he emphasised his desire to retire, saying: “Let me be very personal. I need a break as a person. Think about this. Much as I do not want a break at any price including the stability of the country, I still implore you to think about this. We must find a formula that allows change with continuity and stability. That is the challenge.”
The Truth can be buried and stomped into the ground where none can see, yet eventually it will, like a seed, break through the surface once again far more potent than ever, and Nothing can stop it. Truth can be suppressed for a "time", yet It cannot be destroyed. ==> Wolverine
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